Exactly a week after Mayavati and Akhilesh Yadav stitched up an alliance to take on BJP, nee Modi, Mamata Banerjee, the firebrand CM of West Bengal brought in 20 National leaders and 4 former Chief Ministers, Farooq Abdulla, Omar, Akhilesh and Gegong Apang on the same stage to address a mega rally at Kolkata Brigade parade grounds. It also had former PM HD Deve Gowda, and the CMs of Karnataka- Kumaraswamy, AP-Chandra Babu Naidu and Delhi-Arvind Kejriwal.
The angry or wounded group included sitting BJP MP Shatrughan Sinha and former BJP union ministers Arun Shourie and Yashwant Sinha, the latter who also donned the title of vice president of BJP until 2009. I can dismiss all these three as politically irrelevant today.
I can dismiss Kumaraswamy too, who does not have a significant influence on Karnataka voters, and his party Janata Dal-Secular has won just 37 seats in the 222-member assembly. His father became the PM with merely 46 seats after the CPM Politburo spurned the offer of Jyoti Babu’s invitation to become the PM!
Abdullahs of National Conference is third in ranking with 15 assembly seats out of 89 with PDP leading with 28 (mostly in Kashmir valley) and BJP the second with 25 (mainly in Jammu), a scenario, which may not change. Mehbooba of PDP is making right political noise to include terrorists in the peace talks and is condemning army actions, which would go well with the Kashmir voters. PDP and BJP account for all the parliamentary seats from J&K.
Akhilesh could be a game changer, and his win in UP is tied to another mercurial leader Mayavati, who he will be forced to pip for the PM’s job. His father’s U-turn during the presidential election, betraying Mamata cannot be forgotten so soon. They may not be in any alliance, where Congress is a part, though the absence of the Gandhi’s is a strong message itself. Sending Kharge was symbolic and window dressing. Abhishek Singhvi is an MP elected from Bengal and wily that he is, he may bat for any winning team, as the High Command would demand him to.
Naidu is the most cunning and could have aspired for the PM’s post but could be facing a tough time if Modi ties up with YSR’s son Jagmohan, upsetting his poll prospects. I bet on Arvind, who could return with a handsome majority in Delhi.
I was critical of Mamata’s new found love for the corrupt DMK party and her inclusion of Stalin. It’s like going to a bazaar, buying a tumour and getting it inserted into your system! Dravid parties are turncoats! RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav has a hard time, with his father cooling his heels in the Jail and a few more corruption cases yet to be heard. His warring brother also is a bother for him.
The questionable faces among the political leaders were Hardik Patel, the Patidar leader and Jignesh Mevani, the Dalit face of Gujarat. The demand for reservations for Patidars is a settled issue by the courts, but the rebel wouldn’t accept anything excepting paralyzing everything. I have left out a few more irrelevant to the national poll scenario like Hemant Soren of the JMM or Lok Dal leader Ajit Singh.
Back to Mamata, for her it has been a good show, propelling her from a regional satrap to a leader of national dimension. About the crowd count, I need to wait until Modi’s Brigade rally to compare. Arranging transport for the millions like today could dampen the numbers in the BJP rally on 8th February 2019. If not the Queen, Mamata could be a kingmaker post-May 2019. For the BJP Rafale could be an à la Bofors unless they come out clean quickly without the simple explanations that the revelation of the cost could help our country’s enemies!
The list of the abstainers from the rally could also be long and that could make an impact too!
Sampath Kumar
Intrépide voix
