The post-budget political scenario has taken certain formations, BJP party rejuvenated with sops scattered across the spectrum of farmers, unorganised labour and middle-class citizenry. The opposition parties led by a vitriolic Rahul and Mamata have come down on Modi for playing to the gallery and pre-election populism. The scenario inside the parliament was of jubilation in the treasury benches and despair in the faces of the opposition party chief and the Congress party president. The occasional protests, even during the mention of ‘Gau-Mata,’ or cow-mother, were anaemic.
Sitting at the cool of the capital and talking to a few well-informed friends, it seems in the continuing battle of wits and wisdom, the government always have the advantage of holding a few trump cards, which they can play. They already have, like in case of pushing through a 10% reservation, which seems to placate the disgruntled upper castes in the Hindi belt or converting the presentation of a vote-on-account into a full-fledged budget-cum-election speak.
Despite the show of strength by CM Mamata in Kolkata in a mammoth rally in the presence of 24 national leaders, I do not attach much weight to the same in sustaining the momentum until the selection of the Prime Minister. Mamata is relying heavily on Stalin’s DMK, hoping that the Tamil Nadu party will garner about 30 parliamentary seats, which will make her a formidable contender with her own 42 seats (she repeatedly has emphasized that her Trinamool Congress will win all the places in Bengal), though my prediction is she will win about 30 seats.
The UP lobby will never allow her any space unless they are themselves decimated in the polls. Mayawati, on the other hand, is despised by the higher castes in the highly divided populace of populace. Indira Gandhi dumped the old leaders and broke the Congress party, but Rahul has no such worries, as there are hardly any old faces strong enough to challenge his leadership. He may go for his usual sabbatical after a near rout, regardless of their recent wins in a few states.
The highly probable return of BJP may not be their own making, with its mis-governance on many fronts, but by the folly of the opposition, who are thinking of taking the might of Modi only on the eve of the elections. More worry is about the probable opposition PM face, rather than spending a few days to scribble an implementable and sustainable poll manifesto. CBI may fast track investigations on Vadra and chit fund scams to keep the pressure and heat on the Gandhi family and Mamata.
Finally, there could be a lesser option of NOTA in the forthcoming election, and the voters may be fiercely decisive in choosing one or another candidate. Construction of Ram Mandir, still is an emotional issue, may begin before the polls to whip up frenzy and consolidation of Hindu votes. It’s Modi and BJP in pole position, but a few more crucial laps are pending to decide the winner.
Sampath Kumar
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