Modi’s 5-year-term 2014-19 followed two 5-year terms of UPA rule under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Therefore, it becomes imperative to ascertain the reasons for UPA’s defeat to asses Modi’s win and his tenure.
Manmohan Singh’s entry was due to the impossibility of Sonia Gandhi becoming the PM. Sonia Gandhi wielded absolute control over as president of the Congress party and was allegedly the defacto parallel head of the state. She installed her son Rahul as the president of the party. Manmohan Singh’s integrity was beyond doubt, but many of his ministers were involved in scams of billions of dollars. Coal Scam, 2G Spectrum, Chopper scam, Tatra Trucks, CWG scam, cash for votes, Adarsh Scam, IPL scam, Satyam Scam to name a few.
It was merely an anti-incumbency that Modi exploited, but he also promised reforms, by driving out scamsters, bringing black-money back into India which would enrich every Indian by Rs.15 lacs, ending a dynastic rule and transform the nation into a golden era. Modi raised hopes of the youth and sold dreams. The restive sadhus from Ayodhya were polarised and a Hindutva agenda laid to win the elections, which the BJP and its partners achieved handsomely. Despite having an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha, the Upper House, still controlled by the opposition scuttled many essential bills due to the disconnect of Modi with other parties.
The ruling party soon became arrogant, and it resulted in time tested partners like Telugu Desam Party and several other smaller parties quitting the NDA. The role of right extremists, the lynching of minorities and killing of intellectuals opposed to Hindutva ideals were on the rise, as was the clampdown on institutions and control over culture and thinking. Many ministers like Smriti Irani, Ravi Shankar Prasad, Arun Jaitley, Javadekar, Harsh Vardhan and Dharmendra Pradhan were all sub-optimal in their performances.
The worst was the demonetization, which Modi and his party still try to justify. It paralyzed the nation, and in particular, the farmers who are still reeling under the strain. Small industries, which were vital employers buckled, resulting in severe job losses, which has become a critical poll issue. The confiscation of black money during the elections exceeding Rs.3500 crores defeats the demonetization exercise.
Redrawing Rafale wasn’t a smart idea either, and shrouded secrecy gave rise suspicion and protests, becoming the critical line of the opposition poll campaigns. The statistical data of the government, often delayed or cooked up, has lost much credibility. India never suffered on this account before!
Finally, Congress and many regional parties have been surviving on the support of minorities like Muslims and Christians. BJP, to counter this has wooed Hindus with a radical Hindutva line, which has unfortunately divided the citizens of this country. BJP could muster 230-240 seats on its own and would have to depend on others to score a simple majority. Even if Modi manages to secure a return, he can do so only by accommodating difficult regional leaders, which will affect future governance.
On J&K, Modi is repeating about the repeal of Sec, 370 and 35A, which sounds hollow as it did in the past 70 years. The continuing terrorism debunks the claim that peace has returned to the Kashmir valley, which was one of the main poll promises of Modi.
The immortal Modi magic has waned. His recent statement that the opposition wants to get him killed, or his invoking Rajiv Gandhi could all be a sign of his political fatigue and vulnerability. If Modi still wins, it is not because of his excellent batting during the five years, but is because of poor fielding by the opposition.
Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix
