Round one has gone in favour of the Rajasthan Chief Minister, Ashok Gehlot, the majority of the Congress MLAs rallying around him. Sachin Pilot has a handful of legislators, about 17 or 18, including two ministers from Gehlot’s cabinet. A smaller alliance partner with 2 MLAs Bhartiya Tribal Party has also snapped its ties with Congress. Sachin has dismissed the claims by Gehlot, stating true numbers will be revealed on the floor of the house.
Sachin, by no means, has the numbers to claim a majority or stake for the government right now. However, if his claim of thirty MLAs in his support is true, it is enough to pull down the Gehlot government. That may well be the beginning of the problem, rather than the end.
BJP has been passive players, not visible in the scene as yet, unlike their aggressive stand in Karnataka or Madhya Pradesh, where governments run by the opposition were toppled. It is not adding to their goodwill if people opt for Congress or non-BJP governments in the elections, and later deceit and defection makes a few black sheep switch sides, to reverse the mandate of the people. This is not a good democracy.
Gehlot may not be in immediate danger, but the lure of enormous cash rewards, position under any new alliance for those who were neglected, or, above all the fear of enforcement raids could veer away the decisive numbers in short to medium term.
Sachin has two options on the face of his humiliating termination from his posts as a Deputy Chief Minister and the President of the Rajasthan Pradesh Congress Committee. One, He can form his party. Two, he can go the Scindia way, joining the BJP. Option one is fraught with the danger of being pushed into oblivion and soon forgotten. Running parties require huge funds, and he may not have deep pockets.
The option two seems more practical, with his friend Jyotiraditya Scindia already well ensconced in BJP. Scindia’s supporters have found sufficient plum placements in the latest MP cabinet expansion, CM Shivraj Singh maturely yielding space to Scindia.
In case Sachin opts for option two, the BJP, for securing one more state under their control may agree to offer the CM’s post to Sachin, though such chances seem to be bleak right now. He can, however, play a crucial role in ensuring berths for his supporters. Sachin has worked hard in the current Rajasthan win during the Assembly elections. Congress party may not have had the requisite numbers, but for the intensive campaign by Sachin, which no one will deny.
The ominous Covid worry seems distant, as an important state from the country is in its theatrics. But time is the essence for a kill in any battle, and no one wants to miss it. I ignore adding the role of Gandhis, the reason being if Rahul or Priyanka had enough confidence, they would have driven to Jaipur to sit and resolve the dispute between their party leaders.
Some still think the Congress party could spring back in 2024. They reflect the stock-market syndrome, may the world go to hell, Covid or war, the indices keep rising for no reason.
Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix
