What lies ahead in 2021 for West Bengal? Part-5

The countdown

Election Strategizing has developed from art to algorithms backed technology. Exit polls, therefore are becoming increasingly closer to reality. Not to be left behind, the TMC hired Prashant Kishor, a former Vice-President of JDU, expelled earlier this year (2020). He was earlier rebranding Mamata as a possible substitute for Modi, in case the latter lost the elections. There were serious allegations of nepotism and corruption on the distribution of Covid care funds and the Amphan relief. Kishor  turned to cleanse her image, insulating her from the corruption protests against TMC politicians in rural Bengal.

BJP, buoyant after their Bengal Lok Sabha performance kept up the pressure on TMC, corruption, cut-money, communal clashes being the prime areas of attack. Mamata exploited on the anti CAA and NRC mood of her bordering State. ‘Caa Caa Chi Chi,’ became the popular slogan, gongs and conches joining the protests. Didi, for the public also shunned her pro-minority leanings and appeared without Hijabs in the Id greetings advertisements, and her deputies also shunned the Karakul caps.  Both the BJP and the TMC knew that polarisation of the Hindus would change the election results.

West Bengal, as I wrote earlier, is much progressive, all castes and communities living in amity and peace. The scars of the bloody partition after Independence were embers none wanted to reignite. Millions of refugees from the then East Pakistan flooded West Bengal both after partition and again during the Bangladesh liberation war. The communists thrived on them, creating conclaves of minorities, who became a solid vote bank.

Like the demonetization, the think tank in Delhi worked hard and pushed their agenda of CAA and NRC vigorously, threatening to deport those who have arrived after 1971. The CAA also offers Citizenship to the Hindu refugees from the neighbouring countries. Mamata dared the Centre and vehemently protested to allay the anxieties of the Muslim population of Bengal. The protests were suspended due to Covid-19 restrictions. The BJP, on the other hand, focussed on the Uddhavastus, the Hindu migrants. The Matuas and Rajbaogshis together can decide the fate of nearly 100 assembly segments in West Bengal. The move benefitted BJP during the LS elections.

The Bhadrolok Bengali, from Urban and semi-urban areas, may not be all happy at the State’s last nine year’s TMC rule. Misgovernance and steep corruption are not into a Bengali psyche. Constant conflict with the Centre has not benefitted the State as the educated or unemployed youths march flood other states for their livelihoods.

Mamata is an indelible face of her party, but also the only one. However, the State BJP has no credible leadership face at all. The names of Swami Kripakarananda of Rama Krishna Mission,  Kartik Maharaj of Bharat Sevashram or Sourav Ganguly are floated as the probable CM faces of the BJP. These are mere speculations at present, and those named have denied it.  Rumours also abound of a few BJP parliamentarians crossing over to TMC, which I dismiss. No MP will quit and be disqualified under the anti-defection law!

The time closes in with just nine months to face the elections in Bengal. The next part will talk about the likely outcome of the results.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix

In pic: Mamata and Prashank Kishor