Bengal in Round-2!

I saw the second C-Voter survey on the likely outcome of the West Bengal polls today. It gave TMC 148-164 seats; the BJP 92-108; Congress & Left 31-39 and Others 1-5. They also opined that the TMC would poll 43% votes and the BJP 38% votes.

Like their last edition, the C-voters survey work on a straight contest between the TMC and BJP, disregarding the alliance between the Left and the Congress. The alliance may get a boost with ISF allying with them, which might queer the pitch in about 80 seats. This will adversely affect TMC and leave the BJP largely unscathed. 

The C-voter survey has missed the probably winnable seats by rebel independents, who are denied tickets, the ISF-MIM combine who could damage the prospects of TMC in about 45 seats, if not win them (like the MIM disturbed the RJD-Congress combine in Bihar). The RJD, Sena and the JMM may not be able to prevail on Bengal at this point.

Back to BJP -TMC, now that the elections are announced, the spate of the foundation stone laying and full-page ads in the newspapers would end. Election meetings will have to meet the EC guidelines. All these would restrain motormouths like Madan Mitra and Anubrata Mondal.

The next weeks are also crucial for the CBI to justify their summoning Rujira Narula, Abhishek Banerjee’s wife, and her niece Maneka. Failure to pin them on charges of any crime or misdemeanour could be exploited by the TMC as another witchhunt and adversely affect BJP’s prospects. 

If Mamata is the undisputed CM face of TMC, BJP suffers from a credible face as the CM. It is funny when they post pictures of many women BJP leaders, most of whom are unknown and include Bharati Ghosh, the infamous ex-policewoman!

If TMC returns, it will be because of the overconfidence of the BJP, and if BJP wins, it will be because of the voters finally wanting to get into the growth bandwagon of India.

If TMC has to win, Mamata Banerjee must drop Abhishek given the serious charges of a coal scam against his family members. BJP could add a few seats if Modi orders the Motera stadium name’s restitution to Sardar Patel’s. But neither would!

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix