Mamata 2024

The victory in the recent Bengal elections may be prompting the TMC for the next bigger battle, the Lok Sabha elections in 2024, Didi challenging Modi in a David -Goliath battle.

Mamata must spend time in other states to set right the well-orchestrated anti-national character by the right-wing media over her appeasement of minorities and opposition to the CAA.

Social Networks are filled with hashtags of a Bengali Prime Minister in 2024. Mamata has restrained her mercurial outburst, as witnessed in the Central Government’s Chief Secretary recall imbroglio. She held her ground, stood with her officer, much like she stood with her ministers when the CBI hauled them to their office. In the act of defiance, she did not release the officer and appointed him as her Chief Advisor. The BJP party has left it to Lord Ram to fend its supporters, who were allegedly forced to flee their homes after their party’s defeat in their recent elections.

Modi’s image has taken a beating over the Covid-19 management and the vaccine distribution. The opposition has a long rope to needle the BJP after their failed attempts over Rafale, Shahin Bagh, Farm Protests. The plight of the jobless poor is slowly engulfing rural India.

In today’s context, Mamata can be the only credible united opposition’s face, that is, if the opposition gets united to oppose Modi. Mamata, I guess, will begin her campaign from the Southern States. Along with Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, AP and Telangana, could be covered in Phase I. These states have 141 seats. She could then move north towards Bihar and Jharkhand, which have 54 seats. In UP, she may have a chunk of the minority votes and the committed votes SP. Of the 80 UP votes, she may garner 30.

If the Gandhi led Congress considers Mamata as a lesser evil than Modi and unequivocally support her, she would get a share of the pie in Rajasthan, Punjab and Chhattisgarh, which have a total of 49 seats. In Maharashtra, Didi may get backing from Shiv Sena, the NCP and the Congress to give her 24 votes (50 % of the 48 votes.) Collectively these states have a strength of 249 seats.

Mamata is a more credible opposition face than Uddav Thackery, KCR, Stalin or Jagan Reddy. The only other challenge could be from the Gandhi family, trying to prop up Rahul, which might find no takers. Sonia Gandhi playing second fiddle to Mamata is seemingly an unimaginable situation as of now. This does not mean that Mamata will be easily accepted as the face of a united opposition.

Acceptance of Mamata as an alternative to Modi in the Hindi heartland is unthinkable. However, Didi, a matured politician, has been steering clear of antagonizing the RSS, with which Modi may not be on the best terms now.

Mamata must ensure the immediate return of the poll affected supporters of the BJP to their homes and ensure that peace and dignity are provided to them. The other impediment is insulating Abhishek and her trusted lieutenants from the many party scams: the Narada sting, chit fund scams, coal, and cow smuggling. Any proven involvement of her nephew might alter the political chess game in Bengal and her plans for the Lok Sabha elections in 2024.

A lot depends on how Modi fares during the residual three years of his rule. If the BJP banks of Central Vista and Ram Mandir will bail them out, they may be far away from reality.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix