Lessons for India from Afghanistan!

The world believed the US when President Biden promised the return of all American and NATO troops, ratifying what Trump had promised earlier. But the US grossly erred in not weighing such decisions on the recent shift in paradigms and ground realities. The US suffers from an eternal threat perception, cherry-picking its targets for war. Cuba, Vietnam (a speck in the world map), Iraq, Libya, Venezuela, Syria, Afghanistan, Iran, North Korea etc., all featured in the list of a long list of opponents. The fear might have been real or generated by the US arms industry, which directly benefits wars.

The main two threats to the US are Russia and China. Russia is entangled in its messy economy and might have lost its fangs. China seems to be high on the US focus for the present. Eagerness to focus on South China Seas and contain China has prompted the US retreat from Afghanistan.

It has, in the end, helped in the formation of an axis – Russia, China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Turkey’s President Erdogan is never friendly with the West, and with its 80.5% Sunni population, Turkey will sooner or later join the group. The axis could have another member, Iran.  Despite their 90% Shi’a majority and being opposed to the hardcore Sunni Taliban, Iran may keep the historical religious differences aside. A poor Pakistan could go into turmoil and a firm grip of China. Letting the Taliban a free run into their country for needling India could have a strong repercussion in their country as well.

The US announcement of refugee relief aid of USD 500 million seems to be born out of guilt.  It is just as clumsy as the sudden quitting of the US forces from Afghanistan.

One thing is clear. The US seems to have lost its leadership status globally and looks weaker. It could face more challenges from the new counter-axis, which will surely increase the threat for the US and the American allies worldwide.

The US is increasingly relying on its domestic opinion for external activities. America does not anymore approve of its sons dying on foreign soil in mindless wars. The attitudinal change was most visible in the last US presidential election when both Trump and Biden were racing to announce the withdrawal of all troops from all foreign soil, which has put an end to its active engagement as the peacekeeper, judge, and the jury of the world.

Though Russia has been a time-tested friend, the new policy of India’s leaning towards America has changed the mood of reciprocity from the Russians. The future might soon see the ascent of China, already a global power, as the primary global power, which may not augur well for India.

I must express myself now as a neutral and apolitical Indian. India at this juncture requires strong and decisive leadership. I guess the events in Afghanistan have brightened and consolidated PM Modi’s future, far ahead of many hazy faces of opposition leaders, or even leaders from within the BJP party. He has the guts to look straight into the eyeballs of the adversaries and tackle the threats, as he did in Doklam.

For those who think that the Taliban, with the support of China and Pakistan, can invade Kashmir to liberate it, we have long passed the ghosts of 1962, the period of the red rose.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix