The garam masala of Indian politics!

The dates for the five state assemblies (Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur, and Punjab) are announced between February 10 and March 7, spread over seven phases. The results will be announced on March 10. Notwithstanding the brouhaha created by a section of the media over Trinamool’s march in Goa, to me, it is a tiny spec of a nonissue. Trinamool Congress has stayed away from all the other states after getting a lukewarm reception from other major players to enter their respective dens.

What matters is what is happening in Uttar Pradesh. A sitting minister from Yogi’s BJP cabinet, Swami Prasad Maurya, has resigned from his post and has quit the BJP. He is likely to join the Samajwadi Party due to “gross neglect” towards Dalits, backwards, farmers, unemployed youth, and small traders. BJP Tindwari MLA Brajesh Prajapati, Tilhar MLA Roshan Lal Varma and Bilhaur MLA Bhagwati Sagar have announced they are leaving the party in support of Maurya.

Interestingly, Maurya, a former member of the BSP, realized the deficiencies of the BJP party only at the eve of the elections, much like many TMC leaders switched sides to BJP, before West Bengal Assembly elections, over the likely and certain BJP’s win. Most of them have meekly ignored their shame and returned to the Trinamool fold.

The churn in U.P. is bigger than Goa and was unexpected. The fortunes of Akhilesh Yadav has brightened already allying with Jayant Choudhury of RLD, which would give sizeable Jat votes. Akhilesh has patched up with his estranged uncle, Shivpal Yadav. BSP supremo and the former CM of U.P. Mayawati has announced that she will not contest elections and could concentrate on keeping her dwindling flock and fortunes safe. Further, AAP has assured its support, and now the wily old political horse, Sharad Pawar, has talked of a grand alliance to oust the BJP. Not to be left out from the national political circus, TRS from Telangana would meet Akhilesh to explore the formation of a national alliance.

All this may be honey to those opposed to Modi and the BJP but could worry the Trinamool’s poll strategist Prashant Kishor and the Trinamool leadership. Where would they fit in the altered scheme? As the most vocal adversary of Modi and his policies, Didi could’ve camped at U.P., or at least visited the State making some public appearances to show her party’s solidarity and support to anyone opposed to Modi. She did not. The excuse of a pandemic seems short of merit in a country where Covid restrictions for political and religious events are pooh-poohed with disdain.

A strong Akhilesh, with the support of most opposition parties, is expected to ignore Mamata, another contender for the PM’s post. Akhilesh Yadav earlier had announced that he would not contest the Assembly polls. He has already tasted success and tasted blood, being the youngest CM of the largest State in the country and completed a full term. Despite that he will be 50 years, if he could grab the PM’s chair in 2024, he would miss Rajiv Gandhi’s record of 46 years.

The option to get confined to Goa, a politically insignificant size, is outright faulty and has relegated Mamata from the political scene. Or, as many now whisper, is it a tacit political understanding between two biggies, you manage the State, and I, the country engaging in mock fights like in the WWF to satiate their cadres?

Yogi is not going to yield a walkover, in my guess!

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix