On the 6th of December 2021, the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, made a whistle-stop visit to India, calling on Indian Prime Minister Modi. On the 7th of December, I wrote that there could be a war, Russia fighting the NATO forces on the question of Ukraine. The intervening holidays, New year and diplomatic efforts have caused the six weeks delay, but the chance of a likely war has increased multifold now.
Ever since America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, it has lost much of its credibility in the world as a leader. The U.S. has been trying hard to reclaim its lost image by temporarily shifting its focus away from China and instead challenging the might of Russia. There have been organized protests mass movements in several past Soviet Union nations like Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Poland, and Belarus.
The latest is the move of the EU to admit Ukraine as a member of NATO, over which Russia has serious objections. Putin has demanded that no member of the former Soviet Union be admitted into NATO, eventually threatening Russia militarily. The U.S. is unnerved by the Nord Stream 2, an 11 Billion Russian twin pipeline of 1230 km below the Baltic Sea, delivering Natural gas directly from Russia to Europe. Germany is currently the biggest buyer of Russian gas and draws more than 50% of its gas imports from Russia.
The U.K. and the U.S., which always suspected Putin’s motives, have been arming Ukraine, to which Russia has objected. Parts of Ukraine bordering Russia, Donetsk and Luhansk, are already controlled by Ukrainian rebels favouring Russia. Russia has amassed about 100000 soldiers, tanks, and artillery at Ukraine borders, but it may be grossly inadequate to launch a full-scale invasion.
If Russia wages war, it could face a dollar freeze, cutting out from the SWIFT bank transfer system, and a technology squeeze, which will push Russia a few decades behind.
India has maintained a studied silence, as Russia and Ukraine are their important trade partners. Supporting Russia will invite the wrath of the west and, in particular, the U.S. Right now, it looks like Russia will intrude into Ukraine and occupy a small territory, symbolically defying the west. Germany, an important EU member, has declined to offer military weapons and limit only medical supplies. Its offer of 5000 helmets to Ukraine came under flak today.
Though it is an inopportune time for a war, when the world is recovering from the Covid shock, a show of supremacy between the U.S. and Russia might force other countries unwittingly to become players in the mindless game.
Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix
