Russia celebrated their Victory day yesterday, the 9th of Oct. The day marked the Russian victory over Nazi Germany in 1945. Like the Indian Republic Day, the Russian Victory day includes a display of the many latest Russian weapons and a smart march past by their several regiments. The President’s address is the highlight of the day.
Much like the West’s earlier inaccurate assessments, Putin did not officially declare war on Ukraine, calling the 10-week activities only Special military intervention, whatever that means. If the relentless bombings and destruction of military and civil infrastructures, an estimated 5 million people fleeing the country cannot be called an act of war, what can be?
Putin could have simplified and shortened the duration of the war, similar to what the Americans did post-Pearl Harbor attack, by dropping the nuclear bombs. Such drastic action may have ended the war swiftly, but its cost, such as loss of human lives, could have been terrible, and the NATO countries would have been forced to enter the battle, causing the deadliest scenarios for the entire world. Fortunately, such recklessness was averted, and the West, too, has thus far helped Ukraine with medium intensity weapons, drones, anti-tank missiles etc.
The Russian war for annexing Crimea was for two weeks, and it was a one-sided match, with Ukraine giving a walkover to Russia. The resistance from the Ukrainian armed forces and the civilians must have stunned Russia. Despite pursuing his plan, despite the adverse world opinion, Putin could be avoiding the title of the perpetrator of genocide. It is his army that could become worrisome. Ten weeks of fighting in a cold country is no fun, and soon the soldiers will be exhausted, which is what the West could be hoping for, to cause a rebellion.
Even if only a portion of what is telecast is true, Ukraine is in shambles. The West is pumping arms to Ukraine, whose President is in a hurry to get admitted into the NATO. If the West has avoided a bloody escalation by not directly participating in the war, they are not calming the situation either with their increased arms supplies to Ukraine. The longer Ukraine battles mighty Russia, the greater will be the degree of destruction which must end.
My reading is Russia will capture Mariupol and Odesa and then call for a ceasefire, beginning lengthy negotiations, which everyone welcomes. For the Russian gas and oil-dependent Europe, the memories of the war will evaporate against their hunger for energy. NATO, which was on the verge during the Trump era, has a shot in the arm, making many European leaders flaunt and get reelected in their countries.
The West did not show such alacrity when China bullied India or when the U.S. attacked many countries in the last fifty years. War is driven by energy and politics, in which most countries are mere pawns!
Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix
Pic Courtesy BBC
