What next, Mr. Putin?

In a few hours, Vladimir Putin, the Russian President, will declare annexation of approximate 40000 square miles of Russian-controlled four provinces from eastern and southern Ukraine, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. The West has reacted with horror over the annexation move calling the referendum for the annexation a sham.

Russia suffered an embarrassing defeat in Kharkiv, which resulted in the removal of the Russian General commandeering the forces in the lost battle. The Ukraine war seems longer than planned by Kremlin, which seems to have landed in a swamp, unable to extricate itself.

Amid the pressure mounting within and outside Russia, Putin has ordered the drafting of able persons to fight the war, many unwilling and fleeing to their bordering countries like Georgia. The annexation of a sovereign country by an invader will be met with more rigorous sanctions, affecting the economy of Russia.

Meanwhile, there have been orchestrated blasts in the  Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines. They pose a danger to the environment, and Russia might have punctured its crucial gas-carrying pipelines. Though the U.S. leads as the beneficiary of pipeline disruption, which would propel them higher as an energy supplier to Europe, the damage could also be self-inflicted to justify a precipitative military response by Russia.

The long and gloomy winter is at the doorstep of Russia and its neighbourhood, which will cause more causalities than the war. Moreover, the annexed areas will come under the Russian nuclear umbrella, thus discouraging any harsh reaction from an energy-starved Europe.

The United Nations, a bystander, continues to whine that the annexations are a dangerous escalation of the war to newer levels by Putin and is against its charter. However, fierce wars and genocides have taken place continuously in the last decades under the very nose of the U.N., which is reduced to parroting the voice of the West. An undeterred Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, vows to take the annexed regions back from Russia.

The U.S. has spent nearly 16.2 billion dollars on Ukraine, and more money could flow in the form of food, medicines and weapons from Europe and its allies. The long war seems merely to contain the damage to the assets and loss of lives. However, Pushed to the wall, Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons, which he must have meant. The world shudders at the thought of a nuclear war, dragging the world into an abyss of darkness and agony.

India has been lately critical of Russia and has advised talks to end the war. It seems sitting on a wall and visible to all, pitching for the U.N. reforms, a near-term mirage.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix