The relevance of Gujarat!

The election commission will announce the dates for Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections in a few hours. Gujarat currently ranks 2nd in India, with a GDP of 19.44 lakh crores in 2020-21 (Rs.22.3 lakh crores estimated for 2022-23), moving up from 9.22 lakh crores in 2014-15. Gujarat was once a bastion of the Congress, but the BJP has won the last six elections. Modi was the Chief Minister of Gujarat for two full terms, during whose tenure the state saw a transformation and grew as a manufacturing hub. The present tally of the BJP is 111, and the runner-up Congress has 66 seats, down from the 77 it had won in 2017.

Gujarat is Modi’s home turf, from where he emerged as a national leader. Any shock defeat for the BJP in Gujarat will enthuse the opposition in sharpening their knives for an all-out attack in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. A mistimed Rahul Gandhi’s yatra is far away from Gujarat to make any dent in the BJP’s results. Gujarat becomes interesting and seems to be a fight between the BJP and AAP. However, Kejriwal’s AAP has queered the pitch and might become the Achilles heel affecting the performance of the Congress, thus helping the BJP. The liquor-gate scam, money laundering charges against Satyendar Jain and the avoidable controversies created by Gopal Italia are not helping the AAP and keeping Kejriwal busy firefighting the digressions.

The Congress is a close runner-up in the 2017 elections. However, it lost its sheen in 2022, and the void grabbed by AAP, buoyed by its Punjab poll success. Congress is also electing a new president for its party. It is now like a headless chicken, with no one responsible and, therefore, no one accountable for the party’s performance in Gujarat. Tharoor’s scapegoating is imminent, but will a Kharge win help revitalize the party?

It matters that the Patidar lobby is kept in good humour, which all are trying to overdo. Hardik Patel, who led the Patidar reservation agitation in 2015, had switched from the Congress to the BJP, which might help the ruling party. It also reveals the over-reliance on faces based on castes which seem to rule the forthcoming elections more than ever before.

Gujarat will be watched closely by all, especially the 2024 PM hopefuls like Nitish Kumar and Mamata Banerjee. However, their state woes might keep them preoccupied for now and until 2024. A resounding win for the BJP will strengthen Modi and Shah. I will be a body blow to many opponents criticizing the Gujarat growth model.

For now, let’s wait for the poll dates to be announced and may the deserving win.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix