The US Director of National Intelligence publishes an annual threat assessment report that suggests there might be conflict between India and Pakistan.The U.S. is especially worried because both India and Pakistan have nuclear weapons, and any escalation and the damage it will cause to the region and world peace will be huge.
There have been four changes of governments and prime ministers since PM Modi came to power in 2014: Nawaz Sharif, Shahid Khaqan Abbasi, Imran Khan, and Shebaz Sharif. Four times, the Pakistani government missed opportunities to establish or improve its relationship with India. Nawaz Sharif was India’s best hope, as both the Indian and Pakistani PMs shared a good personal rapport. Pak-backed terrorist attacks like those in Pulwama, Uri, and elsewhere in the valley have taken a toll of 3496 lives (from 2014 until March 8, 2023).
Pakistan is in turmoil. There is no food or medicine, and the army and the ruling coterie loot the aid flowing in to sustain their perpetual and critical bankruptcy. The situation is like what Sri Lanka faced a few months ago. Both Pakistan and Sri Lanka owe China billions of dollars for infrastructure that is not presently helping the common man.
According to IMF data, China holds roughly $30 billion of Pakistan’s $126 billion total external foreign debt, and there are no plans on the table for any repayment or payment of interest by Pakistan. It is important for Pakistan, therefore, that it keeps the bogey of a Modi-ruled Hindu India as the worst threat and talks of a nuclear war whenever it gets a chance in their media and in national forums. China is watching the war threats from behind the scenes with interest.
China also had a bit of a taste of India’s might and our army’s resolve when the Chinese army was repulsed from the LAC at Galwan in 2020–21. The U.S. president, Joe Biden, has assured that America will step in to assist India in the event of an Indo-China war, which is heartening. While India prefers peace, threats to its sovereignty must be responded to with equal, if not greater, force. The shadow of shame that afflicted Indians during the 1962 Indo-China war will never be repeated.
Rahul Gandhi, the de facto leader of the Congress party while in London and addressing a few students in Cambridge, equated the Indo-China-LAC situation to that of Ukraine. He has earlier doubted India’s aerial strike, which destroyed a major terror training camp of the Jaish-e-Mohammed in Balakot, Pakistan, as a retaliation to the Pulwama terrorist attack. The hatred for Modi among a few Indian opposition leaders has driven them to doubt and reject every government narrative.
If Pakistan makes the mistake of declaring war against India, Modi will win the war, and China will be kept at bay by a combined QUAD pressure. In the event of a decisive win, which will only come when we retake POK, we may expect a few months advance on the general elections and the return of the BJP government for another term.
I leave it to your guess as to the fate of the naysayers.
Sampath Kumar
Intrèpide voix
In pic: the instrument of surrender by Pakistan to India, 1971.
