The year 2018 is ending with no much comfort to the NDA, which has tasted a series of reversals in many state elections. The year to begin in just after a day is crucial as the nation would be electing a new government to govern for five years.
Things are uncertain at the moment, with regional parties somersaulting now and again in frequencies never witnessed before. A few have, either by their open statements or by studied silence, have revealed their aspirations for the top post in the Union Government, which include, Mamata Banerjee, Sharad Pawar, Chandra Babu Naidu and even political underweights like Azam Khan! The GOP has made it clear of their choice: Rahul for PM, which the scion of the Gandhi family has himself endorsed with a “Why not?”
BJP has no qualms on Modi’s return, though their masters, the RSS seems a wee bit nervous and has been giving bytes through Nitin Gadkari, a closer and loyal cadre than an independent and bulldozing Modi.
State-wise, it will be suicidal for any Dravidian party in Tamil Nadu to openly align with BJP. However, as in the early years, AIADMK could give post-poll support merely for their survival. Sabarimala issue was cleverly manipulated to whip up passions and consolidate Hindu vote bank, which has not worked, as the Panchayat polls overwhelmingly returned the ruling front. Telangana is in the firm grips of TSR, who now has donned the role of a kingmaker for a ‘Third-front,’ consisting of the non-Congress and non-BJP alliance, though receiving a lukewarm response from the other regional straps.
Karnataka is dicey, and the seat share between UPA and NDA could be even. Role of Shiv Sena, a disruptor, has to be watched in Maharashtra, though the rantings by its leaders against BJP is merely posturing for a hard-bargain for more seats. Maharashtra would return BJP.
Naidu of AP is wily and is now with Congress, his earlier forever adversary. BJP could prop up YSR’s son to cut Naidu and may succeed to some extent. Orissa, where I had met people across the state would return Navin Patnaik led BJP. He has successfully maintained an equidistance from the two national parties Congress and BJP and only extends issue-based support. I need not mention on West Bengal, which would overwhelmingly re-elect TMC, an avowed opponent to BJP, which could also win the BJP’s seats in Asansol and Darjeeling.
Nitish, an NDA constituent, could come back with a lesser number of MPs. BJP would do poor from Bihar losing many of its 21 seats. Farmers’ woes have taken a toll on BJP’s assembly poll performance in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, which would repeat in the Lok Sabha elections and could spread to Maharashtra and Haryana too. Punjab is seething with anger on the appointment of Kamal Nath as Chief Minister of MP, which could cost it few dear seats.
The ruling BJP in Gujarat got jitters in the last elections and barely managed to grab the power. Rahul shunned his ‘reluctant prince’ image to campaign seriously, which catapulted him as a leader to be watched. They are a monopoly with 26 seats, and more than half of these would get wiped out, causing the most significant loss from a single state for BJP.
Assam and N.E could overwhelmingly vote for BJP, which they think has done more in the last 5 years for the region, than since independence. I may have left out a few states or union territories, but the general scenario is what as appears in 2018. I’m waiting for 2019 with interest.
The summary: NDA with Modi as PM could return to power with lesser seats! It will be because of a triangular fight imposed by the third front, either by illusionary like TSR or instigator like Mayawati Ji.
Sampath Kumar
Intrépide voix
