With the presidential accent changes in the status of J & K have become fait-accompli, the J & K portion reformed as a Union Territory with legislature and Ladakh another UT without a legislature. These will come into effect from Oct 31st, 2019.
The move was has stunned Pakistan, which hoped that the world would rise in its support forcing India to beat a hasty retreat. Hotlines between Pak leaders and friendly nations, supportive media were buzzing non-stop. Pakistan expected the UN, US, China and Islamic countries to come out in support. All have politely backed out, or advised that the matter must be resolved bilaterally in the spirit of Shimla Agreement.
The last option left for Pakistan is a limited war with India, to preserve any face for Imran and the army amidst mounting anger and fury at their country’s incapacitation. They have often gone on record to use nuclear weapons if needed. India and China both have a ‘no nuclear first attack policy,’ which could be respected by both. The same cannot apply to Pakistan, who may be itching to go out for a misadventure, having lost all other diplomatic options
Additionally, China, the closest ally to Pakistan, is busy with riots for the past eleven weeks at Hong Kong. Their trade too is under severe pressure with the US standing firm on higher tariffs on its imports of Chinese goods.
The economic consequences of war could overrun the military ones. As against India’s Rs.71.13 to the USD, Pakistan has skidded to Rupiah 160. As against our Forex reserves of $429 Billion, Pak’s reserves are $7.7 Bn, which may not last even a few weeks of their import bills.
Our Military is 1.44 million strong, with an additional 1.15 para-military as against Pakistan’s 0.62 million. Our navy is incomparable to Pakistan’s armed with three aircraft carriers, 295 warships and 15 submarines. However, China possesses a much more extensive armoury and the third largest naval fleet in the world. They have also developed stealth fifth-generation aircraft and frigates as well. Our best bet under the circumstances would be the Brahmos-II missiles, which has a formidable fire-power, with a speed of Mach 8, 9,800 Km/H and range of 450 to 600 Kms.
Pakistan could dent a town or two with their arsenal but will be obliterated from the map of the world, if India chooses to respond appropriately. China, I guess, will be kept in check by Japan and the US. India can continue to rely on its time-tested friend Russia if the scenario becomes graver.
In short, Pakistan may continue in its proxy war, engaging with the youths of Kashmir valley in creating disturbances. India, on the contrary, must lay the golden carpet of prosperity for the Kashmiris, which will result in a revolution on the POK side and their Kashmiris opting to join India.
In every way, it’s advantage India!
Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix
Pic: Pakistan’s surrender to Indian forces, 1971