Donald Trump’s visit to India 24-25 February will dwarf every other news in the subcontinent for a while. The timing is unique as he is facing re-election and has to prove to his country that he is genuinely more significant than what many of his citizens make him out to be.
He has already a preamble that India has been treating the US bad and that the eagerly awaited trade deal between India and the US had to wait. He did precisely the same to China, starving them of business until the Asian giant yielded after its quid-pro-quo sanctions failed to budge inimitable Trump. Donald makes no bone in repeatedly stating that he is for America and therefore to expect any significant concessions could be over-optimism by India. I do not think that the withdrawal of GSP privileges on many goods could be anywhere on the plan.
He is speedily into building the wall with Mexico as promised, and I do not think he would relax the visa norms for IT professionals either. The POTUS is peeved at our recent defence acquisitions, Rafale et al., from non-US sources. The present mission of the president might see a few high-end military deals MH-60R multi-role sea-based helicopters and missile systems totalling over USD 4.5 Bn.
The US President was too sure of winning a Nobel for his peace efforts in the Korean peninsula, but the wily Kim proved too slippery to handle, and the Chinese might have thwarted any thaw in the region. He then tried his luck in the millennium-old Israeli Palestine conflict, but the Arab world has rubbished his peace plan. I guess he despises his predecessor Obama winning a Nobel, while he still has not, a disappointment the outspoken Trump already has made public.
He is trying to bring an elusive peace by a deal to in the next couple of days with the Taliban, which might bring relative calm to the region. The US-Taliban deal will also do away with the US need to rely on the Chinese satellite, Pakistan for future logistics support. Therefore his other dice-play, trying to mediate between India and Pakistan over Kashmir. If he persuades the two countries to sit and help reach out an agreement, sure Don would be entitled to a Nobel. What he does not visualize is Modi’s overfeed of Nationalism, and ‘not yielding an inch of Kashmir,’ rhetoric, which might come in the way.
India is essential, merely because of the Chinese military overgrowth, which is threatening the US. The Chinese are cleverly getting closer to Russia and Iran, which could be a formidable challenge to the US plans. The US strategically needs India more than ever in the global context to restrain China. Modi has shown chivalry in the earlier standoffs with China, be it relating to Kashmir or at Doklam. Modi’s rapport with Trump and his overall higher ratings might help India secure some advantages to regain India’s power in the sub-continent.
In all, Ahmedabad, Surat and Agra are spruced up as never before, which is excellent. I wish Trump drives as well on my road, where the Electricity guys had dug up the pavement in front of my home for giving a new meter connection to my neighbour a year ago. The Kolkata Municipal corporation is in no hurry to repair as our councillor is from BJP! Well, these are local travails, like Arvind Kejriwal’s omission in the invitee list.
In these days of slapping of sedition cases with alacrity, I limit my chant with Indo-Indo zindabad!
Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix
