The world was battling Covid, India besides busy restraining the Chinese aggression in Ladakh. The US was contented in sending their warships to the South China seas, chest-thumping and giving soundbites from the White House of their military might. The undaunted Chinese were quietly busy elsewhere on their path of strengthening their forces with its other friendly countries.
Russian role in the event of a China India event could be extremely important. Russia has so far supported India in our Galwan stand but has stopped short of commenting on the Chinese misadventures. India promptly agreed to procure 21 MiG-29 and upgrade of the existing fleet of MiG-29 costing Rs 7,418 crore, while purchasing 12 new Su-30 MKI from HAL at the cost of Rs 10,730 crore. The basic fact is Russia and China are both Communists and cannot forsake their political ideologies for whatever reasons and for long. China required more strength and cannot rely on a largely neutral Russia in the event of an Indo-China war. The other compelling reason is to contain the growing US influence in the South China seas.
China thus turned to Iran, a country under severe stress and extremely aggrieved from the killing of its top military general Soleimani in Baghdad Airport by US drones on the 3rd January 2020. Iran is under economic sanctions by the US, and thus its sale of crude has come to nought. China is ever energy-hungry, and thus Iran would serve a great purpose now and in the future. Iran is believed to be a nuclear power too.
China thus agreed to invest US$ 400 Billion in Iran’s infrastructure, while Iran agreed to become a part of China’s OBOR initiative. China will buy Iran’s petroleum products at special prices. This is as bad news as Covid for India and will severely impact India’s plan of utilising the Chabahar port facilities it is building in Iran. The US also threatened India into submission by forcing the cancellation of cheaper Iranian oil imports by India. We are thus leaning towards the US more than ever before. Could the US be trusted, when you need them, direly is a question, which cannot be answered right now, as the sustainability of the US is based on ensuring their self-interests alone.
It may not be best for India to be complacent and rely only on the US, as I will bet more on smaller but militarily strong nations like Israel and Vietnam. If China surrounds us, we have to do likewise, keeping them occupied with their local problems. If China pinches us hard on Kashmir, we have to do likewise in Xinjiang. If they hurt us in Arunachal, we have to hit them in Baluchistan, cutting the access to both Gwadar and Chabahar ports. Survival is now for the fittest and the mightiest. Our diplomacy must focus on containment of China, deadlier than Covid.
If China queers its pitch at our borders, it could be when the US goes for polls later this year. My personal opinion is any change in the Presidentship of the US right now may not augur better for India.
So would be in India too, in the foreseeable future!
Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix
