From my post in the Facebook 8th Oct 2020, ‘Who could win the Bihar polls?’ I had summarised thus: Quote- “My summation is, therefore, the BJP will win, regardless of the seats won by JD(U) or LJP. Nitish as a CM and at their mercy would immensely suit the NDA.-Unquote.
The ‘bali ka bakra,’ or the sacrificial lamb has been Chirag Paswan, which too I had clearly mentioned. He was like trying to play hockey in a cricket match, confused and confusing others. I guess a lesson is learnt of what one’s worth being in an alliance and stepping out and fighting it all alone. I am sure he is poorer by a few hundred crores of his father’s ‘hard-earned’ money. Thankfully, Ram Vilas Paswan, his father is not alive now to see the stupidity of his son and the dilution of his assets.
There is no doubt that BJP was finding Nitish increasingly annoying and had to cut him to size. Making LJP contest JDU only wherever the latter fielded their candidates and not where BJP fought, could have been a crucial move engineered by the BJP. Paswan hit at Nitish, his bête noire, but said nothing against Modi or the BJP during his campaign. I hope he will be suitably rewarded in the future.
RJD performed as expected and almost at par with their last assembly election where they were the top with 80 seats. But the chameleon Nitish was a part of the Mahagatbandhan with 71 seats and INC 27 seats. BJP fighting alone scores 53 seats. To that extent, BJP has done remarkably well, despite Covid and the migrant crisis.
The election takeaways: the fight is too close to decide the finalists, but NDA has a distinct edge, as per the leads. A new crisis could emerge if the BJP legislators insist on the Chief Ministership of their party, contrary to their earlier announcement BJP to continue under the Chief Ministership of Nitish Kumar. If there is a danger of losing the CM’s post, Nitish could once again repeat his famously known somersault.
Will Nitish return to the Mahagatbandhan like he was in 2015 carrying the CM’s post with him? Such a move will queer the pitch of Indian politics and a resurgence of Rahul Gandhi and the INC. I feel the NDA alliance is shaky, as against the Mahagatbandhan, with RJD, INC and the left who are committed to fighting against the BJP.
Talking of INC, a new low is reached every time. They have done badly in most of the byelections held in the 13 States. In Bihar, they have reduced their tally from the previous 27 to now 20 seats despite contesting 70 seats. They must reinvent, and the only way is to let the Gandhis retire gracefully from politics.
As I write this, two-thirds of 2.7 lakh votes have been counted. Who knows, who could be having the last laugh, Tejaswi, Nitish or Sushil Modi? The 17 seats lead by the left parties is commendable, contesting 29 seats in total. A significant turn is the CPI (ML) joining the electoral battle, discarding their age-old poll boycott stance.
A tame end to a thriller movie is certain to rob the excitement. Let us all wait for the sudden ‘U’ turns at the last minutes.
Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix
