There are two parallel mindsets. One, of those who are in the governance, whose attitude changes from soft to hard after winning elections, the greater the winning margins, the harder the change in their mindset; from transparent, approachable, to secretive, authoritarian and unconcerned; the second is of the common man – suffering from a flat economy for well over a decade, increasing taxes, reducing job opportunities in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors, with open free market, reducing subsidies and social benefits.
Pride aspect has been taking a hit in the face of severe competition and urge for growth to keep the investors smiling. Many major trusted brands, Benz, Audi, VW for example have been found to resort to deceit and tweaking, unthinkable even a decade ago.
In the EU there are strong and weak countries and there has been a heavy cross-subsidization to keep the poorer members afloat, which common man suspected and began to protest.
Expansion of the EU to include poor economies has resulted in the flooding of people with sub-optimal capabilities from countries like Romania to the affluent members of the EU. These people work for about one-fifth the salaries and have snatched away jobs from the lower strata. To add fuel to the fire, the happenings around the world, the wars and strife have result in millions seeking refuge compounds the misery of common man. Gone or the days, when immigrants were literati, doctors and engineers, who further boosted the economy in the countries they shifted to. Europe, led by powerhouse Germany, has been suffering from a holocaust trauma, as many septuagenarians in the government do, who batted for admission for the migrants, from the IS and from the former Warsaw bloc have added to the misery.
Religious precipitation between communities have further crystalized the trauma of the common man and has created a wedge, which just cannot be repaired in the next decades.
What happened in Britain, though some say is a blip in the radar, to me is the beginning of a larger breakup. Rightwing politicians have emerged and are getting stronger, cashing in on the migrants and strangulation in the social support. Murmurs have become louder in France, Italy, Denmark and Netherlands. It has only one route, to assert the value of their respective countries’ wealth and productivity and to stop funding bankrupt states. This can result in the restructuring of the EU, though the prediction may sound alarmist.
It may not be in the distant future that Scotland breaks away from the United Kingdom, to engage with EU along with its erstwhile partner Ireland, which is already in the EU fold. It however, would assess the stability of the EU with its existing members closing ranks and not dithering away.
It certainly does not augur well for India, which is suffering from a running 18-month shortfall in its export earnings, with its one of the prime exporting countries in the wilderness for the time being. For the many companies that have their EU logistical operations housed in England, they would move over to Ireland, to access EU as usual.
A crash begins with a crack!