The table is turning against the government, which is fighting for a win in the coming assembly elections in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram. Pre-poll surveys have predicted a victory for Congress in Rajasthan, while Madhya Pradesh could be a tightrope walk for the ruling BJP. Chhattisgarh could be retained by BJP, while Congress could be facing an anti-incumbency threat in Mizoram. In short, the dream of an absolute majority for BJP in the Upper house of Parliament looks like a distant dream.
Many important 2014 poll promises by Modi Ji remains unfulfilled and finds little or no possibility of even beginning, with a changed judiciary asserting their right than ever before. The grip on institutions – media, cultural, investigation, education etc. have altered democracy to an extent, where dissidence is construed as a national threat and treason.
The government has, instead of glorifying their performance, have resorted to the bashing of Nehru-Gandhi dynasty, without realizing the slow and steady advance by the opposition. If at all BJP could muster a majority in the next elections, only due to the disunity in the opposition and despite its own record of dismal performance on curbing black money, substantiating the corruption charges against the past government and the UPA leaders, or taking in members of the Gandhi family on any allegation of crime.
BJP is falling back once again on the benevolence of Ram and promising to hasten the building of the temple, regardless of the restraint by the Supreme Court on any quick disposal of the case. The Hindu seers and the RSS have given an ultimatum to the Government, build or else..! BJP is mulling the ordinance route, which could result in further polarization and division of communities that could see a repeat of disturbances witnessed in 1992. This can cast a long shadow on our economy, the battered rupee and could result in a fractured mandate in the 2019 elections to the detriment of the BJP.
BJP’s weakness can also be noted by meek submission to JDU on seat sharing for 2019 polls, yielding 50% of the seats. The Central government’s slow pursuance of various crimes, including the Ponzi chit funds scams of West Bengal point towards a silent understanding of the perpetrators and the government.
A note on the essentiality of strong government and the danger of weak coalition was sounded and surprisingly by Ajit Doval recently, uncharacteristic for any bureaucrat to do so. The Army Chief Bipin Rawat too has been giving bytes like a politician, often breaching his position. The governor of Reserve Bank has declined to follow the dictates of the Finance Minister over crucial policies.
In a knee-jerk reaction, the government that was perceived close to Adani-Ambanis has re-realized the role of small industry, which was struggling post demonetization, and have come out with a 59 minutes release of collateral free loans up to Rs. 1 crore. Agents are sharpening their knives to make a kill off yet another loan-mela, which could cost the government a few lac crores.
I am not sure of a second innings for Modi, but the first one, for all the hype created could have been better played and delivered. It has not been so. It may be too late for any reversal of fortunes!
Sampath Kumar
Intrépide voix
