I wrote that a clearer picture of the pattern of voting could emerge after the 5th phase of polling. I was a day long in touch with friends from many constituencies that went for ballot today. The Lutyens’s Delhi came in strength, each flashing a victory sign, but clearly unsure of the results. It seems that the ruling BJP could fail to secure a simple majority, with the deficiency large enough to excite the third front to attempt first in the formation of the government.
The backroom parleys have started quietly between leaders, and the most important was Andhra CM Naidu’s visit to West Bengal, where he even campaigned in Kharagpur, a Telugu populated area. The key actors now to be watched are Mayawati and Mamata and not Rahul Gandhi. Though in numbers, Congress could closely trail BJP as the single largest party, his attempts to enter the Rashtrapati Bhawan with a first claim to be considered may miss Mayawati and Mamata, as the whispering mills of Delhi reveal.
Mayawati and Mamata might give it a miss for the Congress sponsored opposition meeting on the 21st May, which could define the next days. Though Akhilesh at this juncture is behind Mayawati, his father Mulayam could prefer Modi over Rahul. However, the old man’s influence is waning and may not be able to alter the course of history. It also appears that both Mayawati and Mamata are against a meeting of the regional parties, any time before the election results are declared, particularly with Stalin announcing Rahul’s name for the PM in advance.
Mamata’s posture of belligerence towards Modi is to garner support for herself from the other regional satraps, opposed to Modi and Congress. Mayawati keeps her plans well hidden in the bag she always carries. One thing sure, the pressure is telling on BJP as the war of democracy is ending in another week.
The critical question is if voters in Bengal still would rally around their leader Mamata? The crucial seats of Kolkata, particularly the North Kolkata and Jadavpore seem a bit dicey, and BJP could capture a ten plus score, which would undermine her ambitions for the Prime Minister’s post. In any case, my guess is it would be UP, which gave a massive mandate earlier to Modi, now the Waterloo of BJP, strengthening the ambition of Mayawati.
It is, however, the wisdom of the voters, which cannot be taken for granted easily with high decibel poll campaigns or splashing of money alone. A politician of relatively less visibility Raj Narain could defeat Indira Gandhi, and this same Mamata vanquished a tall CPM leader Somnath Chatterjee from Jadavpore, making an entry into parliamentary politics.
It is to be seen with interest if India rejects or approves the polarization, or division, which the BJP has done with nominating people like Sadhvi Pragya or re-nominating controversial persons like Sakshi Maharaj and Giriraj Singh that would set the agenda for the immediate future.
Wait until the voting ends on 19th, but as I sign off, I see two faces emerging, Modi and Mayawati!
Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix
