India had a bitter experience losing the 1962 war with China, the painful wounds still raw and suddenly hurting ever since the India-China standoff at Doklam in 2017 and now in Ladakh. A belligerent and cash-rich China has been encircling India, wooing our neighbours like Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Nepal, Myanmar and Bangladesh with critical infrastructures like sea and airports with civil and military uses in mind. The OBOR road, which is built right through POK territory is a direct challenge to our country’s safety and integrity.
The Ladakh standoff is one of the latest hardline postures by China, and high-level diplomatic moves, as well as military-level negotiations, are underway to push the Chinese back to the LOC.
There is a substantial nationalistic and patriotist cry to boycott Chinese products and hit them where it hurts. Our economy is under severe strain for the last two years, and the Covid 19 has further damaged the prospects of a revival of business fortunes any soon. The scenario is further aggravated by the return of millions of maltreated migrants to their homes. The industries in urban cities will suffer for quite a while with a shortage of labour force, and it could take more than sweet words to woo them back to work any time soon.
We have to tread carefully to the question if India can sustain a boycott of Chinese products, and if so in what categories. India imports steel, chemical and pharma intermediates and raw materials, hardware for mobile phones, electronics and computers etc. where we are not geared up to replace China. Business people from Korea or Japan are not philanthropists and would draw their pound of flesh in every deal, pushing costs higher.
We have to draw a clear line, on items that India can produce, even if with marginally higher costs and products for which there are no alternatives other than Chinese. Chinese exports are 2.5 Trillion US$, of which our purchases are US$ 75 Bn, which is less than 3% of their total exports. On the contrary, our exports of $ 17 Bn is 5.3% of our total exports. It will not hurt China much if India stops importing any goods from China. On the other hand, India could burn itself with a total trade boycott.
Therefore, rather than rhetoric, we must ask ourselves what we wish to do, whether to hurt China, or whether to hurt India. Battles are won, with proper planning and adequate back-ups, the lack of the latter cost us our 1962 war. A trade war is no different. We need to strengthen our industry, make it competitive and learn to honour timely deliveries and compliances.
Mixing nationalism and trade may help in the exposure of various shortcomings in our infrastructure and system but cannot resolve them. A total revamps and revival of selected sectors to take on the Chinese can be achieved only with the adoption of the latest technologies. India must relook into our entire imports from China, protecting indigenous industry, and alternative sources from wherever so as not to be taken off-guard.
Atmanirbhar Bharat, a self-reliant India is every Indian’s dream, as is mine too!
Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix
