What lies ahead in 2021 for West Bengal? Part 3 – The rise of BJP

Mamata is one of the shrewdest politicians that I have noticed, who can change her political affiliations as frequently as she could resign without batting an eyelid and walk out of any group. Didi snapped her party’s ties with NDA in August 2006, surprisingly over the illegal infiltration of Bangladeshis into West Bengal. Those were days of Left Front who facilitated the large-scale entry of Bangladeshis, the latter who formed a strong vote-bank of the Left.

Mamata was in the wilderness in the next few years and made the next and the most significant move of her political career, aligning with the UPA in 2009 for the Indian General elections and their alliance winning 26 seats (TMC 19, Congress 6, and SUCI 1) in the Parliament. The Phoenix rose! She became the Railway Minister again.

The next two years could have been the toughest for the Left ruled State when Mamata tried hard to prove the misgovernance of the Left and her party, the only likely saviour of the State. She fought the State Assembly elections in 2011 winning 184 seats with her allies Congress 42 seats and SUCI -1 as their tally. The Left was decimated. Mamata became the Chief Minister of West Bengal. She parted ways with UPA in September 2012 to, and the State Congress too parted ways with Trinamool Congress.

Mamata continued her winning streak in the 2013 Panchayat elections and the 2014 Lok Sabha elections winning 34 of the 42 seats. She dared the proven scam allegations singeing many of her colleagues and won again with 211 seats in the 2016 State Assembly elections. If she faced any poll reverse that could have been in 2019 Lok Sabha election, where those who ditched her to join BJP, like Arjun Singh won the election. With 18 MPs in their kitty, the BJP seems in a dominant position in Bengal. But could it be true?

Of the two other players, the CPM and the Congress, I guess it is the State Congress which seems rudderless, while the CPM is quietly moving their pawns. Congress allied with Mamata, went on their own and again have teamed up with CPM, changing their political adversary list confusing their party members. It was the communists who were the political foes for the State Congress in the beginning. Then it was BJP as the party increased their visibility before the Congress turning their guns on TMC.

Though aligning with the CPM gave the Congress better dividends, it seems the troubled CPM workers quietly transferred their votes to the BJP causing an unprecedented upswing in BJP’s vote share from 10.16% in the Assembly elections of 2016 to 40.64% in the LS elections 2019. Certainly, the electorate in West Bengal does not sway differently between the Assembly and the Lok Sabha voting patterns too differently.

The anti-incumbency factor could have set in, but the contribution of the CPM in BJP’s win could not be ruled out either.

Assembly 2011 TMC 38.93% (184) CPM 30.8% (40) INC 9.09%(42)

Assembly 2016 TMC 44.91% (211) CPM 19.75% (26) INC12.25% (44) BJP 10.16% (3)

LS 2014 TMC 39.05% (34) CPM 29.71% (2). INC 17.02% (4) BJP 17.02% (4)

LS 2019 TMC 43.69% (22) CPM 6.34% (0). INC 5.67% (2) BJP 40.64% (18)
(*seats won)

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix
To be continued….4