Disturbances had started in China over the US trade embargo closing down many thousands of factories around their country and rendering millions jobless. The Communist leadership could not do another Tiananmen type crushing of the protestors. Simultaneously, Hong Kong youth were restive, and the six-month-long protests showed no abatement. The USA threatened further sanctions over HK, the UK and Australia offering citizenship to the HK Chinese and the EU too fuming at the abuse of the civil rights by the Chinese government.
The Doklam standoff with India went horribly wrong; China forced an ignominious retreat. The idea of China monopolizing the South China Seas was challenged from the US, Japan, Australia, India, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines. The invincibility of President Xi came under severe threat, as his detractors within the party were waiting for an opportune time to pounce.
The Covid appearance on the scene could not have been in an inopportune time than now. The deaths could have been much more than official admissions. The migrant Chinese in millions, from rural China, thronging to the Chinese cities suffered the most. The Chinese Communist Party had to hurriedly restore the prestige of China among the world and more importantly, to revive the image of President Xi. Xi had to be returned as the undisputable leader among his Chinese detractors within the party.
China could be living in a time warp as far as India is concerned. The Chinese Communist Party did the predictable move, pushing the PLA to wage a battle in the Galwan valley on July 15th, 2020, where 20 Indian soldiers were killed. The encounter was in 45 years. The joy was short-lived for Xi, as the well-prepared Indian army refused to be bullied and decisively repulsed the Chinese army. The US intelligence leaks of the deaths of more than sixty Chinese soldiers further wounded the pride of the CCP, and in particular President Xi. Indian army is now well-positioned on all the vantage heights, giving it a strategic advantage.
The induction of the menacing Rafale jets in IAF and stationed at Ambala is no great news for China either. A fuming Xi had to make quick decisions and to make amends immediately. The Chinese trade scenario is full of quid pro quo sweet deals to nations under severe financial stress. If it continues the trend, the trillions in its tranche will melt too soon.
Xi, therefore, will do the next predictable move! Muster the artillery and air force to Ladakh and wager one more time an attack on India. Our army is better suited for the icy winters of Ladakh and is ready to take on the Chinese. A loss in the battle will be the end of Xi’s political career, which he cannot afford. He might turn towards their friend, Pakistan to engage in a second front for India.
It is not without reason that our EAM made an unscheduled stopover at Iran; to minimize the possibility of the use of Iranian port and facilities in case of a war with China. If there is a war, India will not be alone, and it will end the hegemonistic domination of the dragon once and for all. The dream of China becoming a global super-power will be decimated for long.
I hope India and China, both under severe economic stress, will try and avoid conflict, big or small, at this juncture. But if forced, it will be the tricolour that will flutter higher.
Jai Hind.
Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix
