Who could win the Bihar Polls?

Who could win the Bihar Polls?

Bihar will be going to polls in three-phases between Oct 28-Nov 7. It will mark the rule of Nitish Kumar as the State’s CM since 2005. He drove the corruption-laden Lalu Yadav’s Government into oblivion during the period, trying to rein in law and order in a lawless State.

However, the political preferences of Nitish have been unsteady. From backing Lalu in 1989, he switched his support to BJP in 1996. He served as a Central Minister between 1998 and 2004. He became the CM of Bihar in 2005 with BJP as his coalition partner. In 2015 he quit BJP to form a grand alliance with the Congress and RJD. Nitish quit the Grand Alliance, following Nitish’s demand of resignation of the corruption tainted and the latter’s refusal to do so. In 2016-17 he returned as the CM of Bihar, dumping the grand alliance and back into the BJP fold. BJP and JD(U) have announced the seat-sharing without any acrimony because of the threat posed by Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) quitting the alliance. BJP will contest in 121 seats and the JDU 122, of which JD(U) will also give seven seats to Hindustan Awam Morcha of Jitan Ram Manjhi.

Chirag Paswan of the LJP is relatively a greenhorn in the political scenario. Chirag is ambitious and has decided to quit the JD(U), BJP alliance and fight the polls alone. Despite winning only two seats out of the 42 contested in the last elections, LJP was a runner-up in 36 seats. LJP despite quitting the NDA alliance in Bihar is continuing to support NDA in Delhi, his father Ram Vilas, being a minister in the Union Cabinet. LJP is notably giving candidates only wherever JD(U) is putting up candidates and is not opposing the BJP candidates, which points towards a tacit understanding between Chirag and New Delhi.

BJP may be primarily trying to cut Nitish Kumar to size, as his unpredictability has often embarrassed the national party. BJP fought 157 seats in the last election and could win only 53, and were second in 104. This time it may be no different, and they need higher numbers to tackle Nitish, which can be provided by Chirag. LJP could be the ‘Trojan Horse,’ let into the JDU fort. BJP will gain the kingmaker position if JDU losses are made up not by the RJD-Congress, but by LJP. More than staying in the NDA alliance as a junior partner and contesting much fewer seats, Paswan has rolled the dices in a gamble of political do-or-die. The Caste ridden politics of Bihar might lap up on Paswan and reward him suitably. Any numbers beyond 40 for LJP will propel BJP to the pole-position.

That leaves us with the UPA combine consisting of Tejaswi’s RJD garnering 144 seats for contesting, followed by the Congress 70 and the left combine 29. They have already announced Tejashwi as the CM face. In my opinion, the combine will not be able to play a spoiler as Tejashwi, and his party suffers from a severe lack of credibility when compared to Nitish Kumar. The alliance poses no threat whatsoever and would fare badly.

BJP is not very comfortable as is evident and do not want a repeat of Maharashtra, when Shiv Sena, fighting the election as NDA, chose to ditch over the Chief Ministership. There are no more committed friends or foes in politics, and Nitish’s marginalisation could help the BJP.

My summation is, therefore, the BJP will win, regardless of the seats won by JD(U) or LJP. Nitish as a CM and at their mercy would immensely suit the NDA. The mystery will unravel by this time next month.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix