The faulty C-Voter Survey!

Three days ago, the C-voter survey for Bengal elections was released, which predicted big wins for BJP, winning between 98-106 seats. The Left-Congress combine could muster 26-34 seats and TMC retaining power winning 154-162 seats. For the TMC, which won 211 seats in 2016, it is a climbdown, the embarrassment to be offset by being the likely ruling party for the next five years.

Leaders of all the political parties from West Bengal thrashed the survey results. The TMC found their score poor; the BJP said they would win nothing less than 200 seats; the LF-Congress claimed they would have the last laugh in the secular State. The timing of the survey was interesting. It made no mention of an impending cut in the cake for the TMC and the LF-Congress combine. The formation of a new political party by the Pirzada of Furfura Shif Abbas Siddiqi is bound to impact West Bengal elections. His party, called the ‘Indian Secular Front,’ was born yesterday.

Ignoring the new outfit, now claiming the true face of the minorities in West Bengal, who account for nearly a third of the votes is a fallacy. The Pirzada is not alone and is backed by Asaduddin Owaisi, MP and the leader of the AIMIM and thus become a potent force. The latter’s late entry into Bihar to cause an upset, not only by winning seats but also denying a win for the RJD-Congress is now well known. He could ruffle the poll outcome in Bengal substantially.

While the BJP was restrained in its reaction to the minorities party, TMC quickly reacted by decrying the front as one devised by the BJP. Though there has been a suspicion about where Owaisi’s political loyalties lay, there has been no proof, and the leader has scoffed at such attributions, calling these a sacrilege.

Back to C-Voter’s survey, the announcement of the new party’s formation, the ISF, changes the political equations. Pirzada has made a statement, that they may consider joining hands with the LF-Congress combine. Being the biggest beneficiary of the minority voters’ benevolence in the last decade, the Trinamool would stand to lose the most by the new party.

TMC, to dismiss the new front as unimportant and inconsequential is similar to their response to desertions by several leaders, most of them switching over to BJP. Minorities have a right to be appropriately represented, not made to run with a carrot on a stick, with high poll assurances and low fulfilment. The minorities have a right to represent themselves, fight the elections, and respect mainstream India and join in its growth with a positive mindset.

The description of the word ‘Secular’ from the Indian Secular Front, is an oxymoron. Those who tore their vocal cords, calling the BJP divisive and an intolerant religious party, are strangely quiet on the new party. The fear of further alienating the minorities could deepen the wound and increase the electoral slides for anyone daring to cross their path.

Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix