The war none had won!

Curse befell Afghanistan when Soviets intervened in support of the Afghan communist government in its conflict with anti-Communist Muslim guerrillas (1978–92). The Russians remained in Afghanistan until mid-February 1989. The Soviet Union disintegrated into 15 countries in 1991, the seeds of its collapse germinated much earlier, leaving the U.S. as a leader of a unipolar world.

By the summer of 2001, the Taliban was in 90% control of Afghanistan. The ruling Taliban gave sanctuary to Al-Qaeda. The twin tower bombing in the U.S. on September 9, 2001, by Al-Qaeda prompted the U.S. and British to enter Afghanistan to weed out terrorism by dismantling the Taliban and destroying Al-Qaeda.

Between 2002 and 2008 U.S. attempted to end the Taliban stranglehold in various Afghan provinces. By the time the U.S. and NATO forces exited Afghanistan in 2014, it had fought their longest 13-year war. After the exit of the U.S., the Taliban once again rose to capture Kabul.  By April 2002, under President George W Bush, the U.S. turned soft on Afghanistan, showering with a $38Bn aid.

On May 1 2003, the U.S. announced an end to combat in Afghanistan. In Oct 2004, Hamid Karzai was elected the President of Afghanistan. He was a weak leader, leading to the resurgence of the Taliban and an unending spate of suicide car bombings and mayhem.

In came U.S. President Obama, and in 2009, he approved sending an additional 17,000 U.S. troops, on top of the 36,000 U.S. troops and 32,000 NATO service members already serving in Afghanistan. He announced a major escalation in the war effort, with 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan by the summer of 2010, which resulted in many American casualties and causing a local furore in the U.S.

During President Obama’s tenure, Osama bin Laden was killed by U.S. forces on May 2, 2011, in a secure compound in Abbottabad in Pakistan. Taliban came to the U.S. negotiation tables, and Obama announced a reduction in U.S. military by 30000 nos. by 2012 and the complete withdrawal of all combat forces by 2014. Karzai declined to sign a Bilateral Security Agreement with the U.S. and NATO agreeing to retain some U.S. forces due to resentment of his people. Donald Trump tried to suppress the Taliban and bring it on its knees. He could not succeed. Hard-pressed by re-election compulsions, he promised to bring ‘the last U.S. soldier’ back home.

Ashraf Ghani, the next President, signed the Bilateral Security Agreement, permitting the stationing of 13000 foreign troops in Afghanistan. The new U.S. President, Joe Biden, defied his military commanders and authorised withdrawing all U.S. forces. More than 90% of U.S. forces have left Afghanistan, leaving the country chaotic and messy and at the hands of the Taliban.

Taliban has already captured Ghazni, Khandahar and are marching towards Kabul. President Ghani has been orphaned by his trusted friends in the U.S., Europe. India is, as always,  on its ‘wait and watch’ mode. The two countries which seem to be at an advantage are China and Pakistan. Pakistan recognised the Taliban regime decades ago. The Taliban has now declared China as their friend and have visited the country headed by a senior leader. Taliban, whose takeover of Afghanistan seems imminent, would pose a grave danger to India and the fragile peace in Kashmir.

The U.S. is aware that neither the Taliban nor Russia are its immediate threat, as is China. Given China’s maltreatment of Muslims in Uighur, the U.S. quitting Afghanistan in a hurry might be a ploy to lure the Chinese into Afghanistan and create a Taliban vs China war in the future. Such a scenario might keep the U.S. in lesser tension in the South China seas.

If my theory is wrong, it may be wise for India to tread carefully in the QUAD activities against China. Unlike the other QUAD players, the U.S., Australia, and Japan, India is the only developing country with a huge population. Any misstep will lead it into a deep abyss and difficulty in recovering in its economy. The American policy centres on its growth and safety and none else.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix