The energy war!

It’s bizarre that the U.S. president, Joe Biden, has become much like a weather station, predicting the date and time of the Russian attack on Ukraine, and again much like the weather forecasters, repeatedly failing in his claims. It is not adding value to the intelligence machinery he possesses.

The Russian President Putin has been expertly playing the battle of nerves coolly, participating in every dialogue and overtures by every leader trying to avert a war. Putin has utilized the time to encircle Ukraine on three sides, with lethal weapons in his arsenal. The west is crying foul, but it seems a hopeless situation.

Despite the end of the Soviet empire, the western efforts to further weaken Russia has been on all the time. The reason could be the same as in the case of Iraq and Libya, the enormous energy stored in Russia. Russia holds 1,688 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proven gas reserves as of 2017, ranking 1st in the world and accounting for about 24% of the world’s total natural gas reserves of 6,923 Tcf. Russia has proven reserves equivalent to 102.3 times its annual consumption. One can safely add a few more trillion cubic feet from its unproven reserves as well. The Western Siberia part of Russia has reserves of 107.87 bn barrels of oil (2016), and Russia is the 8th largest oil producer in the world.

Ukraine, the former Soviet Union colony, holds 37,892 million tons (MMst) of proven coal reserves as of 2016, ranking 7th in the world and accounting for about 3% of the world’s total coal reserves of 1,139,471 million tons (MMst). Ukraine has proven reserves equivalent to 638.4 times its annual consumption. Ukraine has iron ore deposits as well. Ukraine was earning substantial money from gas transportation from Russia to Europe, which is the prime energy consumer. Ukraine earns $1.2 billion from Russia for the gas transfer through its country.

Nord Stream 2, the 1230 km direct from Russia to Germany gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea, could change the global perspective of long-respected security for oil, which kept the U.S. dollars strong, without the backing of equivalent gold reserves back the greenbacks. Libya and Iraq attempted to break the U.S. stranglehold in vain.

By meeting many leaders, Putin has succeeded in breaking the NATO members, Germany in particular, for the latter’s dependency on Russian energy supplies. The U.S. threat of stopping Nord Stream met with skepticism for two reasons; America’s hurried and abrupt withdrawal from Afghanistan, and it underestimates the E.U.’s dependency on Russian energy supplies. E.U. may not want to depend solely on the U.S. after it caused much heartburn demanding money from NATO to secure Europe from Russia.

The media lashing, painting Putin as the only villain may not hold good. He is like a cornered cat and ready to pounce if provoked further, which Europe wants to avert. Lastly, NATO wants to include Ukraine in its military alliance, merely to keep Russia under pressure. The scheme is faltering and might cause the break-up of NATO as well as the U.S. dominated financial world.

Sampath Kumar

Intrépide Voix