Lessons from the North East!
The results from the three state assembly elections, in Tripura, Meghalaya, and Nagaland, are pouring in and, as usual, offer lessons to all the political parties who have chosen to contest, or even those who are not contesting and calculating their 2024 alliance potentials. So far, everything has worked in favour of the BJP.
So far, the Indian National Congress is the big loser in this election. Kharge, the party’s shadow president, hasn’t been able to move the party out of the shadow of the Gandhi family. Those who were crying hoarse that Rahul Gandhi’s ‘Bharat Jodo’ yatra was akin to King Alexander’s conquest march are quiet and have gone into hiding. Their party think tank must coin newer causes for their rout, as their classical quote on the malfunctioning EVM will be laughed at. Meghalaya and Nagaland are not Hindu-majority states, and thus, their accusations of religious polarization will not hold water.
The next in the losers’ line is the Trinamool Congress (AITC), which bet big on Tripura, claiming commonality in language (Bengali), cultural, food, and religious habits akin to its western counterpart, and thus hoping to re-enact an a la 2021 West Bengal election performance. They have failed to wain even a single seat. AITC is involved in a lot of scams and has a bad reputation outside of the party scene in Bengal. After the AITC’s botched experiments in Goa and elsewhere, it was ideal to stay put and revive the image of the party, but impatient party managers wouldn’t have it so.
I had predicted in my earlier posts that Didi continues to gamble like Yudhishthira, which led the Pandavas to lose everything. Many leaders who had joined the AITC in order to give it an all-India flavour have quietly left.
Nagaland, a place no one would dare step into, has turned around and integrated with India. The credit for this goes not to the Congress, which shunned the North-East, but to the Modi-Shah-led BJP, and the voters have given it an overwhelming majority. I just got back from a trip to Nagaland and Mizoram, where I saw that people’s living conditions have improved in general.
I had predicted the impact of the Tipra Motha, which is led by Tripura’s royal family, Pradyot Bikram Manikya Deb Barma. However, he has only won 12 seats, which was a lot less than I had hoped for. The bounce-back of the CPM and Congress alliance in Tripura contrasts with their national stand, or in Kerala, where the left is the ruling party. The alliance may not be able to prolong itself and could succumb soon.
In Meghalaya, the NPP, with 24 seats, is emerging as the largest party, and the smaller parties have won 10 seats. Conrad cannot form a government of his own and may choose to ally with the BJP if his attempts to enlist the smaller parties fail. Even in that case, they may barely reach a majority with 31 seats in a 60-seat assembly.
Well politicking, post polls, have become a natural affair with the trade of lawmakers and breaking parties. The ones with the deepest pockets have an advantage. George Soros, perhaps
Jai Hind!
Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix
