Lessons from Karnataka
The results of the just-held Assembly elections are yet to be announced, but a clear pattern of the Congress securing a win all by themselves with 120 seats (the majority being 113 seats in a 224-seat Assembly) seems a distinct possibility.
I am happy on one point: that there cannot be any windfall for the Kumaraswamy-led JDS party, which would have sought its pound of flesh like Shylock in The Merchant of Venice. Karnataka has, since the 1980s, never returned the same party to power twice, and therefore the result matched most of the psephologists’ expectations, including those of diehard disciples of the BJP party.
According to the trends, nine ministers of the Bommai government are trailing, which cannot be a cause for much jubilation for the BJP. The BJP-led government’s 40% commission was widely known. The attempt to fuse religion as nationalism and the opposition as anti-nationalist cannot sustain itself for long as reality strikes in. A change from the 20th-ranking state in the 80s to the 3rd in 2023 has obviously raised the benchmark of hopes and realizations in Karnataka, despite caste polarization being more prominent than ever before.
Corruption, however, is not a factor, as any incoming government cannot afford to disown the millions of cadres, as the political parties have become the largest employment providers, doling out cash. I wish and pray that the BJP does not indulge in toppling the government, as it engineered the breakup of the Shiv Sena.
There are two aspects: long-term infrastructure building and the strengthening of the nation’s economy, which might appeal to a few literati and industrialists. A common man’s wants may be different: stable jobs, a house, affordable food, and security. I guess if Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra has positively influenced the state results, the viciousness of attacks in the poll campaign has adversely impacted the BJP.
Over the period, Kannadigas have become more regionalists and prefer to hear out leaders in Kannada and not in Hindi or English, poorly translated by others. The Congress and the JDS seemed to score on this account, with the local leaders overwhelming them by their presence, unlike the BJP, which is reliant on Modi-Shah magic.
The BJP must try differently as many elections are slated for the fall of 2023: Chhattisgarh, Mizoram, and Madhya Pradesh in November; Rajasthan and Telangana in December. There may be a call on J & K also, where an election could be held this year’s end. Most states are opposition-ruled, save Madhya Pradesh, which is reeling under an anti-incumbency.
India has a deep-rooted democracy that rewards the performers and punishes the others. Karnataka has proven that yet again.
Sampath Kumar
Intrépide Voix
